The Morning Eclipse

One step at a time!

2009-09-21T22:04:00.003+08:00

Here's a pizza update. I've been experimenting with my chicken bbq flavor and I'm trying to copy the Yellow Cab version. Cheesy bread with just a smear of bbq sauce.

So far, I'm just 85% there. I hope to get the last bit by my next cooking experiment. :)

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Success is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration. Never tire.

McDonalds across the years

2009-09-15T00:55:00.003+08:00

My friend posted a collection of ad videos from McDonald's.

You'll see how it has matured and gone sexy from the 60's to 2009! Check the link...

http://jonatsgonats.com/digital-branding/why-eat-at-mcdonalds/

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Success is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration. Never tire.

Chicken BBQ Pizza!

2009-09-15T00:43:00.003+08:00

At long last! I finally produced my own chicken bbq! Yum!!!!

Needs some tweaking but I'm confident I'm getting there!

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Success is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration. Never tire.

Judgement day!

2009-07-06T20:06:00.002+08:00

For months, I've been agonizing over my gelatinous crust. Tomorrow, am trying a fresh batch of yeast. If my crust rises, I can move forward with my experiments!

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Success is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration. Never tire.

Only take on risk, if you're getting paid for it.

2009-05-03T23:43:00.003+08:00

In Robert Kiyosaki's Cashflow 101, he has this rule.

If you are going to take on a huge debt, make sure somebody else pays for it. If you are to take in personal debt, make sure it is small.

This is a very important and smart rule. In this age of hyper competition, you can't take on huge risks and expect to recoup the investment peacefully. People are just ready to pounce on you while you're spread thin. If you're in debt, you lose flexibility and cash.

One way to pass on the risk is franchising. It's the backdoor to expanding while retaining control. It has the same magic like an IPO.

A good example is this story.

There's a service company who wants to expand but doesn't have spare cash for the project. We'll call it Clueless Inc.

Clueless Inc. needs to expand because it has secured contract projects that require geographical reach. Expanding will immensely secure it future contracts and further enhance the company's capabilities.

However, such an undertaking will force it to take in huge debts. Borrowing is not an option since the board has just gone through a rough decade of lean business and heavy interest payments. The memory is too fresh and painful.

The board has heard of franchising mainly from popular media. The board understands the concept but the application is vague and murky. None of its shareholders have undergone a franchising agreement before. Furthermore, the board doesn't want to share its business secrets to other people. It fears the new franchisees may become future competitors.

This is the problem of Clueless Inc. and there is an answer to it!

The good news.

1. If Clueless Inc. franchises, it gets to expand without taking any financial risk. It means spending nothing to open new branches. No debt to pay and no monthly interest payments to worry about.

2. Franchising means, Clueless Inc. gets paid to open a new branch. The franchisee, happily, pays it to help him start "his" business. In name it may be his, but in operation, it must conform to Clueless Inc.'s system. Experience is never cheap!

The fear.

The fear is some day, the loyal franchisee will turn against its master and bite back. Clueless Inc. worries that it will be breeding future competitors to an already crowded industry.

First we take a look at the vitals of the business. These are:
1. Experience
2. Reliable suppliers
3. Volume of transaction
4. Project contracts
5. Brand
6. Reputation

Experience
It takes years and thousands of mistakes to build up the business know-how. No matter what the franchisee does, it will be decades behind the mother company.

Reliable suppliers
The franchisee can source its own suppliers but it cannot get Clueless Inc.'s suppliers. Clueless Inc. can hide the information from its franchisee.

Volume of transaction
The franchisee on its own, doesn't have volume to bring down its costs. On the other hand, Clueless Inc., already has volume and is now bigger thanks to the new branches.

Project contracts
These contracts are secured by the mother company and the franchisee has no part in it. It is therefore immensely difficult to even copy.

Brand
A franchisee cannot build a brand because it'll be expanding Clueless Inc.'s brand further while being a franchisee. It will have to start from zero when it opts to end its franchising contract.

Reputation
Reputation takes time and has to be tested. Again, a new competitor will be decades behind.

To further abate its fear, Clueless Inc. can do the following.

1. Get smaller partners.
Never get bigger franchisee partners. To secure its control, financially smaller partners are all it needs.

2. Never be scared to remove errant franchisees
It is a privilege to be given a franchise. Once a franchisee breaches its contract, Clueless Inc. has to get a new franchisee for the area.

Clueless Inc.'s problem is very common. It can be applied to any business like a restaurant, barber shop or laundry service.

With Robert Kiyosaki's rule, any company can achieve bypassing risk and get paid for it.

It's now your turn to interpret the rule to your company.

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Success is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration. Never tire.

Ways the high street shops could fight back and attract constumers?

2009-05-03T10:18:00.005+08:00

Ways the high street shops could fight back and attract constumers?

The high street shops are closing down mainly because of internet shopping. how can the town counsil (sic) attract them back to avoid closing down the high street shops. I've got two ways: increase the number of self check outs and free parking or free buses.

any ideas?

Posted on Yahoo Answers, last week of April 2009

My answer...

The best way to help the high street shops are to promote service businesses. These are businesses that cannot be done over the internet. Examples are restaurants, beauty services, grooming services, massage parlors, car repair shops, etc..

You can use the usual tax perks, easy business registration processes, minimal government regulation to promote the birth of companies.

Another creative way is to make a town council-spearheaded activity that will encourage people to come to the town. Bring in the people to the town so they will be spending in the town.

In the Philippines, poor cities create their own local festivals. There's a mountain city called Baguio which created their own yearly flower festival every January. It just started ten years ago and now is a tourist attraction. The newspapers report on it because of the festive atmosphere and beautiful flower floats.

Make the festival newsworthy and make your place an attraction.

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Success is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration. Never tire.

What a cheese!

2009-05-02T17:38:00.003+08:00

Who could have known how the correct cheese can make such a difference! Yum yum yum yum yum.

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Success is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration. Never tire.

Can someone live truly teach me how to make money from home?

2009-05-02T15:02:00.003+08:00

Can someone live truly teach me how to make money from home? Affiliate marketing, Forex, or something works?

Hi, I am Scott and lives in Chino, CA.

I am also a young 32-yrs-old Chapter president of a Christian organization name Full Gospel Businessmen Fellowship. I am a chapter president not because I am a successful businessman, it's only bcs I have a strong desire to spread the Gospel.

A 9-5 job would tied (sic) me up from what I am trying to achieve with this organization. My chapter is consistently bringing souls to Christ and I want to set up many more chapters like this.

Can someone truly teach me how to make money from home? I don't mind giving back a portion of what I earn to you if you are my trainer, but please don't offer me any MLM stuffs (tho I have nothing against MLM, it's just not what I am looking for now).

Another reason why I am asking for help is that I might move back to Taiwan in 2~3 years to allow my sons to go through elementary school to learn Chinese and heritages. I need something that would allow me to generate income online. And may be build a few more chapters there.

I am not really looking into making big money. If 3 hours a day would allow me to generate $3,000 a month, that would be enough. I live very foogle (sic).

Posted on Yahoo Answers May 2, 2009 3:09pm

My answer...

The easiest way to make money over the internet is to sell goods to the world.

Sell something that is turly unique to Chino, Ca. This way, the whole world can have access to your products and order from you.

Another suggestion is you can use the website as your store. Make it your cashier stand. You can buy or sell basic goods and sell it through the internet. Just make sure you sell it cheaper or else people will just buy from the office supply store.

You also mentioned that you already have a Christian organization. You can use this network to encourage them to order from you. Example: You can sell special stationeries (that can only be found in USA) and sell them to Taiwan. Your friends there are happy and you're happy.

The internet is not a magic answer. You will have to work on the business as well. If you just plan to work 3 hours a day, you'll only earn as much. The beauty of it though is you have a lower operating cost and thus you can either keep the savings or pass it on to your customers.

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Success is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration. Never tire.

What can a brand tell you about the person who uses it?

2009-05-02T14:56:00.004+08:00

What can a brand tell you about the person who uses it?
im doing a research about being a brand-conscious consumer.. thanks!

Posted on Yahoo Answers May 2, 2009 2:53pm

My answer...

Branding is the goal of associating a trademark or name to some emotion or attribute.

There are companies who develop brands and then stick these brands to as many products as possible to maximize the brand appeal.

If a person consistently buys a brand, whatever the product, then that person must believe in the brand's claimed attribute. Maybe the brand is trying to show that it is trustworthy so no matter what product they sell, you can trust that it is what it's claimed to be.

Some brands portray luxury and exclusivity like Gucci or Louis Vitton. Buyers of these brands then must like being part of an exlusive group. The feeling "I'm in and you're not" must really appeal to them. Another example is Nike. Nike associates itself to sports leaders and performance gears. So buyers of Nike either like the performance aspect of the product or they dream to be as good as the sports champions.

To learn more of the brand-conscious consumer, you should study first the brand and then the consumer type. Remember, the consumer may be categorized according to their disposable income, by their hobbies, by their sex, and more. Correlate the attributes of the brand to the specific type of consumer and you'll see how branding works its magic.

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Success is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration. Never tire.

What are some entrepreneurial skills needed to be a bakery shop owner and boss?

2009-05-02T14:42:00.003+08:00

What are some entrepreneurial skills needed to be a bakery shop owner and boss?

Posted on Yahoo Answers on May 2, 2009 2:42pm

My answer...

For one, you should know how to bake yourself. This way, your baker cannot ever fool you. This also frees you from being dependent on your baker. If ever you have an uncooperative employee, you can immediately fire him without worrying about losing his skills.

Second, manage your cashflow. For small businesses, cash flow is vital.

Let's say you're expecting a payment of $500 tomorrow but you ran out of cash to buy supplies for today. Without the supplies you can't bake and restock your shelves. Without the stocks, you'll lose potential sales today. Remember, cash is the lifeblood of the business. Your business lives and dies with it.

Third, do not spend beyond your means. The earnings today may not be all income. You may still owe your supplier for your earlier orders so remember to control your expenses.

Fourth, credit is good. Credit is good especially if it's your supplier who's extending it to you. You can order your supplies and sell your products before paying back your supplier. This setup is very smart. This way, it's your supplier who finances your business and you don't spend a single cent!

Good luck to you!

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Success is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration. Never tire.

There's an easy way to retire!

2009-04-16T21:53:00.003+08:00

This article is heavily inspired by Robert Kiosaki's books of Rich Dad Poor Dad and Cashflow 101. Thanks to his enlighteningly simple idea, the future is now brighter, simpler and within grasp.

To retire is divine! But to retire, you must have cash to enjoy it or at least possess the same amount of disposable income as you have now.

The secret is this: You must have a parallel source of income equal to your day job's income. This way, even if you resign from work, your backup income will still support your standard of living.

Sounds easy and yet something's missing... Here's the key. The backup income is called Passive Income. It is passive because it is money that is earned but is not primarily relied upon.

The best way to increase passive income is to make money work for you. Let money make more money! :D The most common way is rental income, stock market or (though I frown upon it) network marketing.

These three don't require your own hand's to earn money.

Rental Income. So simple. Buy a property and rent it out. Your capital earns for you but the downside is the return is small.

Stock Market. The epitome of the capitalist economy! Here your money can magically mulitply by a thousand in a matter of seconds. Again the downside is it's too quick to go south also. Courtesty plug: Read up on jonatsgonats' (http://www.jonatsgonats.com) stock analyses to help you choose the correct stocks.

Network Marketing. This requires initial hardwork as you build up your network. Once you have enough hardworking people under your network, you can stop recruiting and just wait for the bucks to come in. Sadly, the rules are sometimes complex and there are hundreds of fraudulent companies claiming to be legitimate ones. Because of this, I'd rather not encourage you to go further less you fall to pyramiding schemes.

Now, doing the three maybe simple but you may complain that the return is not worth your time.

Second factor to retiring is CASHFLOW. Increase your passive income from zero to something. Each Peso helps. No matter how small the passive income is, it is a start and don't forget, money is a magnet for more money. That's the law! It is true and you'll realize it.

Now that you've seen the light. Time to take action and incrase that passive income!

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Success is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration. Never tire.

We do business with Confirmation Bias

2009-02-01T01:55:00.002+08:00

In an experiment by P. C. Wason, the results show us that it is inherent in people to continuously discover data that will confirm one's decision. On the flip side, it also shows that once we've made a decision, we may unconsciously turn a blind eye to data that will prove wrong our decision.

Here's a very simple example.

In the book of Paul Caroll, he tells of a simple game. The objective of the game is to guess the rule that is behind a numerical sequence. In other words, one must discover what points will determine a 3 number sequence.

Example: 2, 4 and 6. This is a sequence of three numbers that can be produced from a rule that states: "Three digits of even numbers".

In the beginning of the game, the participants are encouraged to guess the hidden rule. The participants of the game can ask the moderator as many times as they want if whether a particular sample sequence fits the hidden rule.

Example 1: Participant A can ask the Moderator if the sequence " 12, 14, 16" fits the to-be-guessed rule.

At this point, the moderator can only confirm or deny the correctness of the sequence.

Example 2: Participant B asks whether "32, 34, 36" fits the to-be-guessed rule. Moderator answers "Yes".

Example 3: Participant B asks whether "208, 210, 212" fits the to-be-guessed rule. Moderator answers "Yes".

Example 4: Participant B asks whether "64, 62, 60" fits the to-be-guessed rule. Moderator answers "No".

Example 5: Participant B then guesses that the rule is "Ascending even numbers" but Moderator answers "No".

On the other hand

Example 6: Participant C asks whether "59, 60, 61" fits the to-be-guessed rule and Moderator answers "Yes".

Example 7: Participant C asks whether "71, 75, 452" fits the to-be-guessed rule and Moderator answers "Yes".

When everyone's done guessing, the Moderator gives the answer.

One may wonder why Participant B is wrong and Example 6 and 7 are a yes. Well, this is because the to-be-guessed rule is "Any three ascending numbers". Examples 1 2 and 3 fit the rule but Example 4 contradicts it by counting backwards. In fact, the sequence neither has to be even numbers nor increment by two.

In Wason's experiment, it turns out that only a minority or in some cases none get the answer. This simply shows that as one keeps getting confirming answers, a person gets the idea that he is correct and keeps on finding scenarios/ information that will further strengthen his belief. It is seldom that this person will think of the opposite and dare ask a paradigm shattering question like Example 6 which throws the rule of "Ascending even numbers" out of the window.

In business, this is common and plentiful. We must be careful to avoid Confirmation Bias. We must be always ready to take time and try to look from a different perspective.

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Success is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration. Never tire.

MY EYE-OPENING SIGHT FOR KIDS PROJECT

2008-11-26T23:43:00.002+08:00

*Note: Sight For Kids is a project by the Lions. It helps young children get free eyeglasses.
*FYI: Lions is an international civic organization that has numerous projects aiding eye-related projects. Projects can also include other works like the recent donation to the Philippine General Hospital of 150 million Pesos.

MY EYE-OPENING SIGHT FOR KIDS PROJECT by Ryan Cokieng, Pasay Mabuhay Lions Club

My community background

I had a limited exposure to civic activities. Most of my energies were focused on my Scouting projects and my college organization trainings but I was proud to say that in both cases I was able to help the students of my school from high school up until my collegiate years.

However, my small adventures were just a teaser for the Lions’ philanthropic projects.

First brushes with the Lions

I first heard of Lions from my mother when she was explaining my grandfather’s charity work. She told me he was part of a big civic organization called Lions. I didn’t think much of it then for it was all very vague and uninteresting.

Several years later, I heard that my uncle was running for governor. This really confused me! The only governors I knew were public officials. This was when I got to hear more about the organization. The campaign brought a lot of excitement in the family and my uncle spent endless days out touring the provinces. He eventually joined my grandfather in the Lions’ elite club of district governors.

So in the years prior to my club membership, Lions was just this big group that regularly did projects and helped the poor. I even thought it was an exclusive all males club! It was no different from Rotary and it was even lesser known.

The invitation from my uncle

Doing community work wasn’t a physically taxing thing. Perhaps the greatest and most difficult sacrifice was the time. Everyone was working in my family. Taking out one whole day of work will pile up the papers and push back the appointments and meetings planned earlier.

To be honest, it took some encouragement from my uncle before I could let go of my daily routine. He was asking for one whole day from a very hectic and tightly-packed week. Eventually, I gave in and joined our Sight For Kids project for Cuneta Public Elementary School.

Trip to the school

My first project didn’t start out well. I had prepared for the trip but somehow Pasay’s roads weren’t as wide as they’re drawn on the maps. Going around the vicinity of LRT Baclaran station was a challenge! I had to snake through shanties that were spilling over the roads and slowly roll over the barangay-made road bumps. They’re actually humps but they had to make them so small and high. We also mustn’t forget. There was the continuous stream of people trying to squeeze by beside my car while I was exhaustively trying to slip through the mini maze of Pasay! Luckily, I managed to get through unscathed and received directions from the orange-clad enforcers.

All in a day’s project

When I arrived at the school, I sat down and started to observe our past president conduct the project. Beside me sat four grade three students. They looked very neat in their pressed school uniforms and their gel-combed hairs. These were young restless boys! They wiggled and played in their seats. Every few minutes, one just had to run around. It was as if I was back in my grade school.

However, when it came to their shoes, that’s when I started to see the difference. Not everyone wore leather shoes. Some couldn’t even afford a pair. They wore their rubber slippers to school and simply took it in stride. When it came to writing, several of them couldn’t even properly write their names. With their eyes, plenty of them were going to school with inadequate eye glass grades and I even encountered plenty who didn’t have a pair. How could they read the lessons on the board?

In my conversations with the older students, I then learned that classes were now being held half a day. Each batch was alternating their schedules to compensate for the limited number of classrooms and teachers. These children were receiving only half the attention and half the education that private schools had to offer.

It wasn’t just glasses

It was a realization for me. Lions wasn’t just giving out free glasses. The organization was giving these children a chance to improve their future. Eyesight was already indispensable for all and even more valuable for these students. Their poverty now didn’t matter. If they could study well, thanks to better vision, then hopefully their education would get them good jobs in the future. Material wealth was attainable but the wasted opportunity simply due to poor eyesight was such a loss!

Lessons for life

Through Sight for Kids, I learned that leadership could spell the success for any project. When I went to help in the implementation, half of the work had already been completed by my uncle and the district officers. They coordinated with the local mayors, they spoke with the school authorities and they had already mustered the resources and personnel necessary for the project. I was happy to contribute my part to their earlier efforts.

Second was the value of education to the working class’ upward mobility. In my work, I got to hire people and I had seen the quality of education that the public schools were providing. Their inability to perform some of the most basic tasks of researching, typing, due diligence and simple hardwork really disappointed me. For each person, I had to exert extra time and patience to train and teach him. If public education was just upgraded, then we would get better equipped people for our workforce. Fortunately, there were diamonds in the rough that did come out from time to time.

Lastly, there was a real need for more civic involvement from the well off families. Before this project, I was not a believer of outreach projects. I felt a man’s wealth was a fair reward for his hardwork. It was a bit selfish and a belief that needed to be rattled. It was in the schools that I saw the young eyes of my employees. I couldn’t believe that one day; some of these children might be working for me. I had plenty of complaints about the public schools and yet I was only starting to do my part. The schools needed so much help and these were the better funded ones! The young well-off kids of Bel-Air, Alabang, Corinthians and others, needed to see how behind the rest of the Philippines was. I was sure that each project would touch their hearts and show them the bigger, less polished world we’re in.

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Success is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration. Never tire.

After the paintball

2008-11-23T21:30:00.003+08:00

Played at the Global Gutz Paintball along buendia WTC.

Next pictures shows me with some of my teammates!

With my two cousins and half of Chris!

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Success is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration. Never tire.

It's aliiiiiiiiiiiivvvvvvveeeeee!

2008-10-28T23:31:00.003+08:00

Finally, after much practicing I think I got my thick crust pizza!

This is a giant ham pepperoni pizza with 3 cheese combo topped with Parmesan cheeeeeese. Yummy!

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Success is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration. Never tire.

How Can A Credit Crunch Hurt A Business

2008-10-09T22:00:00.002+08:00

Definition of credit crunch from www.dictionary.com

noun

a state in which there is a short supply of cash to lend to businesses and consumers and interest rates are high

Unless you're an exceptionally liquid company, you'll need credit to finance the company's operations. Here are some ways a cash shortage will hurt.

1. You have Post-dated checks that are maturing in three days but you need cash right now for payroll. You cannot skip payroll!

2. You have an order for your product, but you don't have the cash to import it. Lost business!

3. You plan to expand but you don't have a lump sum to build the store. Lost opportunity! The company could have used a loan and paid it in installments while taking advantage of the opportunity to expand.

Use credit wisely and money will surely attract more money!

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Success is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration. Never tire.

Manila Hotel Anniversary

2008-10-06T21:52:00.003+08:00

I just came from the 96th Anniversary of Manila Hotel. It was a grand party with unending flow of food and drinks. There were siomai, quail egg siomai, pancit canton, shrimp, lechon and plenty of pastries for dessert!

There were also a handful of dignitaries. There was Emilio Yap, owner of the hotel, Manila Bulletin and Philtrust bank. There were also presidentiables there like Senate President Manny Villar and Vice President Noli de Castro and of course, the president herself. She couldn't deny Mr. Yap her attendance. She was dressed in a red gown looking like her TV persona- steely eyes and a straight stand.

Manila Hotel could be a better hotel if it was only updated. I could see that they're trying very hard to maintain its original atmosphere and elitism. After all, it was the residence of Gen. McArthur and it was the first premiere five star hotel of the country. However, I had seen this done in Singapore's Raffles Hotel where they got to promote its grandeur and yet offer the latest and best amenities.

Hopefully, a new generation would come out of the Yap conglomerate and start to liven up the historical Manila Hotel!

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Success is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration. Never tire.

How the 2008 Credit Crunch Started

2008-10-06T00:58:00.004+08:00

Part I Sub-prime mortages

It starts with the undisciplined lending of the banks in the recent years. The banks, pressured with bringing in bigger profits, start to lend to sub-prime buyers. These sub-prime buyers are people who are unreliable payers. It starts out well while property prices continue to rise.

With the 2007 almost-recession economy of the US at hand, the economy falters, companies start cutting costs and people lose their jobs. Property prices start to fall at this point.

With no job and no money coming in, the sub-prime buyers start defaulting on their monthly payments and the banks automatically seize their properties, demanding their collateral and protection.

However, here's the clincher. Prices of the houses and lots have fallen so low that it is now cheaper to let the bank own the property. How is this so?

1. The price of the property is now worth less than the loan. Example, a buyer makes a loan of 100k to buy a 100k property but now the same property only sells for 70k. It is much cheaper to let the bank seize the property at its current price of 70k. The buyer can only sell it for 70k and he will not be able to recoup his 100k anyway.

2. Owning properties will require the buyer to pay for annual taxes. This is an added cost on top of the worsening value of the property.

This situation is still a normal part of the banking business. They have provisions for these instances and they are ready to handle these problems financially but the problem doesn't end here.

Part II Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are for-profit private reinsurance companies established by the US government to buy the mortgages of the banks/ mortgage companies for a small fee. This frees up the money of the banks/ mortgage companies to again get more mortgages. This setup enbles the industry to grow faster than it will have been without these two reinsurers.

The problem continues here because as reinsurers, they end up as owners of the non-performing mortgages. The banks sell to them and now Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have billions of property owners not paying them.

With the volume of defaults rising, the two companies raise their white flags and surrender.

The problem could have stopped here but it's more complicated.

Part III Collateralized securities

The banks and reinsurance companies, always looking for ways to earn more money and lessen their risks devises a way to spread the risk of these sub-prime mortgages. They know these loans are riskier than normal and they want to sell them to private investors. This spreads the risk of a 100k loan to 100 people instead of just one bank holding unto it.

The banks and reinsurance companies compile a number of sub-prime mortgages and package them as a security. Security works like a corportation's stock. You can buy and sell it over a stock market. Now, to make it even safer, they insure that security with insurance companies like AIG. It now looks safe and even sounds safe with the big bank names and the big insurance names giving these securities their stamp of approval.

AIG seeing the continuous rise in property prices and considering their size and financial heft, see insuring these sub-prime mortgages as no problem. They earn money for each insurance policy and if the buyers default, they can claim the property and sell it for more in the hot property market.

Banks and institutions around the world now gobble up these collaterized securities like money in a time deposit account.

Part IV The Domino Effect

Remember, the property markets at this point are already souring. Prices are falling and plenty of people are selling their houses and are defaulting on their mortgages.

When the mortage defaults reach the securities owners, the write-offs pile up. The bad loans add up and banks start announcing 100 million losses in one go. These write-offs, big and small spread to big and small banks, first nationwide and then internationally. It even reaches Europe. Old big banking leaders like Lehman Brothers fold up.

Now, insurance companies who earlier agreed to guarantee these securities are now tied to their commitments. They spend hundreds of millions of dollars to pay for these non-performing loans. The volume of claims reach a point that the insurance companies' cash reserves start to reach critical levels.

An insurance company has to maintain cash reserves to pay for insurance claims of their customers and they cannot ever have no cash. If these big insurance companies like AIG default, millions of customers will be affected. There are health insurance customers, car insurance customers, fire insurance customers and many more. For short, once these big firms fall, the ordinary customers will suffer.

Part V Banks don't trust banks

One after the other, banks big or small, are closing down. This trend breeds fear into the banking industry. Since it took months for the major banks to announce their losses, now banks are very scared to lend money. If they do lend money, they are at higher interest rates.

This then leads to a problem of credit or the so called credit-crunch. Money can't be borrowed or isn't easy to borrow nowadays.

Shrinking economy, banks closing, insurance companies closing and no credit, the economy will go further downhill.

Part VI The remedy

The US government will not allow the ordinary citizens to suffer from falling insurance comanies. It also won't allow a further shrinking of the economy.

It decides to intervene in this extraordinary time. The Federal Reserve opens up special loans to financially weakened banks and institutions like Freddi Mae. The US Treasury coordinates buy-outs of troubled banks and insurance firms. However, the biggest and latest rescue initiative of the US government is the $700 billion dollar bail-out law.

This law signed recently, allows the government to buy ALL the non-performing loans. This in effect frees up the problem companies like Fannie Mae, AIG, banks, etc. from counting these loans as expenses. In one stroke, the loss in many balance sheets disappears.

Conclusion

Economists have frowned on this socialistic and anti-capitalist move of the US government. This event should have enabled the smaller disciplined banks to rise up to the top and beat out the ineffective banks. The market forces should have been left to work out the mess. Too bad, with the US election in 30 days, and the potential to deflate the economy of the world, the US government decides to proceed with the initiative.

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Success is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration. Never tire.

Dough Story

2008-09-30T23:45:00.007+08:00

Here comes another night when I experiment with my dough recipe. This time I have taken pictures of my dough before and after settling it down to rise.

In the photo it has the color of siopao white. You see that it doubles in size.

After baking, it comes out hot, golden brown, crispy and crunchy, smelling like fresh baked sweet pan de sal- straight out of the oven!

Yummy....mmmm!

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Success is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration. Never tire.

Continuation of Mural Pictures

2008-09-28T23:55:00.002+08:00

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Success is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration. Never tire.

Pictures of the Mural Contest

2008-09-28T23:47:00.004+08:00

Here are the pictures of the recently concluded Pasay City Host Lions Club On-the-spot mural painting contest. It's an environment theme.

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Success is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration. Never tire.

Painting as investments

2008-09-28T23:38:00.006+08:00

There are insitutions who invest in paintings like stocks. They say the "deader" a painter is the more valuable his work becomes!

Perhaps there is someone who can share his thoughts on this? Maybe some more information on valuation and return periods for such works?

I'm posting the pictures of the murals recently conducted by the Pasay City Host Lions Club at their club house at Lions Road. Yes, your eyes haven't betrayed you. It's really called Lions Road. That's how far public service can get you!

The picture is the champion for this event. The team receives 50k pesos cash prize. The event will be reported on ABS-CBN's TV patrol tomorrow September 29 630pm.

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Success is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration. Never tire.

Your SEC Reports Better Be Updated

2008-09-26T00:38:00.004+08:00

I am presently undoing the mess our accountant has made. We have been regularly late or remiss in filing our annual General Information Sheet and Audited Financial Statements and one of our corporations got revoked.

As a result, I have to check, collect documents and get the appropriate Board Resolutions to save the corporations' existence.

Not to mention the penalties SEC will be charging us. From my research, some of the delinquent corporation pay between 10k to 100k- depending on how many years you are late.

SEC annual reports checklist:

1. GIS for the year

2. Audited financial statement. If your capitalization is below 50k, then just a sworn finanacial statement from your Corporate Secretary will do.

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Success is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration. Never tire.

The pizza crust color

2008-09-24T23:12:00.004+08:00

After baking for a couple of weeks, I finally found the magic crispy brown pizza color!

Oh what 100 degrees Fahrenheit can make! hehe

The 5 hour bake

It all started at 6pm. I was carefully weighing and mixing my test recipe while bearing the rainy damp humid air. I mixed in the yeast into my concoction and powdered in the flour. The liquid result actually looked like the whitish-yellowish Yakult color.

I kneaded and kneaded until I was bored. It was interesting for the first 15 minutes. First you'd see white powedery balls and then they turn into white sticky- very sticky- balls of paste. After pressing, folding and doing the same thing, I came out with play dough look-a-likes!

I slapped them into the pan and fired up the giant ovens! Yes. I had two giant industrial-sized ovens! har har I pre-heated the oven and placed in the pizza crust for several minutes.

Beep went the timer, and I slowly removed the pizza crust with my thickly protected hands. You had to respect the oven at this temperatures. I had horror stories of it...

After being satisfied with my crust's color, I experimented more and decided to crank up the temperature by a hundred degrees! *naughty smile* This was the face of the 5 year old who couldn't play with the oven before! After repeating the process, we got our burned crust- as black as dirt and smelling coal!

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Success is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration. Never tire.

It is better to contract out employees of a company

2008-03-28T22:48:00.002+08:00

After doing some soul searching, I have finally accepted- guilt-free- that a company's employees should be contracted out.

For one, my talks with businessmen give me the conclusion that we have a big pilferage problem in most business operations. A thief in a business spells the death of the businessman. Having a contract makes firing so much easier.

When it comes to the relationship of the employee to the owner, well, the young undereducated worker is such a pain in the neck. He demands so much- minimum wage, double pay, overtime pay, SSS, etc and yet doesn't have a bit of loyalty or honesty. Why suffer the potential consequences of ingratitude. Contract them out. They're used to it anyway.

Yes, a big majority of our young labor workforce is very used to contract work. The dozens of applicants I have interviewed for our secretarial and sales positions have worked at least once or twice under a fixed 5- month term contract.

Third, our ever increasing minimum wage just spells trouble for us. Having a contract erases the wage problem. The employee doesn't complain since he understands that he is under contract at this pre-determined pay.

Fourth, there will be ZERO labor cases. You don't know how wasteful a labor case is until you get slapped by it from an ingrate. The minute a case is filed, the case is already in the employee's favor. This is how the system works. Our law, in its socialist streak, supports the "weaker" party a.k.a. laborer and justifies the bias as only fair.

Now, I may sound like the worst employer in the Philippines but this is only one half of the story.

To really be successful in business, one must have trustworthy and reliable employees. You can't build up a quality workforce by simply treating them as units of labor. You have to treat them with dignity and many more.

My tips are:

1. Share the vision with them. Let them see what's the plan for the future and where they fit in it. e.g. "Our company plans to expand to 6 branches next year. Work hard and be honest. If I find you capable, next time, it will be you training the new hires. You'll be my assistant.." From my experience this is super effective on the young workers (18 to 21 yrs old).

2. Pay them on time. Sadly, the majority of our workers live on a hand-to-mouth existence They don't save up. Their pay on the 15th will only last them until the 29th. So pay them on time and be a reliable employer. Most expect this so take note.

3. Extend credit. The poor lack access to credit. This has been the mother of all Philippine revolutions. My Ateneo professor once explained that the farmers of Central Luzon revolted when they couldn't eat. The hacienderos were not extending credit to them in order to buy rice. Rice was abundant but due to the seasonal harvest, the planting season was a financially lean season and thus also became the "vale" season.

In my experience, my employees just had to "vale" every week. Without any rules, they would have wanted to get their pay daily. Once, I saw one guy buy a new DVD player the day after payday only to sell it a few weeks later when he got short on cash.

In their minds, the money they borrow is theirs already so they demand the "vale" even though passively.

For me, better to have rules set on when to "vale" or else you'll keep on running out of cash for your operation. You may extend "vale" on special occasions but it is always better to control the money for them and just hand it to them on payday.

4 Bring them food from time to time. Everyone is happy with food! This makes them feel happier and appreciative. This also makes them feel part of the company family.

Wrapping it up. It is better for the employer to be two steps ahead in labor issues but in practice there are some things that have to be relaxed. Contracting the employees protects the employer but has the downside of dampening morale. Concessions still have to be made in order to build up productive and reliable people.

A business is an operation done by an organization. The employer is the leader. Just lead it and you'll be fine!

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Success is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration. Never tire.

How far can we care for our employees?

2007-07-05T19:26:00.000+08:00

Caring for the company employees has been a very difficult subject. Some people call the employees as investment and some just plain consider them as a cost to business.

A not-so-recent book, Pour Your Heart Into It, details the story of Howard Schultz and his Starbucks' story. He tells it with great passion on how he took care of his employees. First by giving them above par benefits and wages, calling them Partners and then pioneering Share Options for a private company. All these he did in the first six to seven years of his fledging baby project.

All I can say is Howard's a very lucky guy. From the first day of operation, sales have been exceeding expectations. Plus, selling coffee at 3 dollars a cup when the most expensive coffee around that time only ran around 50 cents, gave him huge margins at big volumes. His story is my dream!

Looking at this subject from the opposite perspective, let's observe the SM model. Our very own SM employs contractual employees. These people get fired every 5 months and another horde of replacements take over. They get no benefits and have zero job security. I know this sounds harsh but there are good reasons for such a decision.

SM wants to avoid the labor unions. A strike by a union can cripple its operations. Aside from getting contractual employees, SM also registers each branch as a different corporation. This way, if for some chance a union is able to form and strike at say SM Manila, only SM manila gets affected. Other branches cannot legally strike at the same time. You see, union law states that a union can only exist within a corporation and separate corproation ensures isolation of potential labor problems.

Another reason why some employers could not care less is the theft issue. It's just unbelieve that some employees will even steal the most unthinkable things. From secretly selling charcoal to padding up the sale price. Small things matter.

Obviously, there are many benefits for choosing either path. One thing I learned though is, there are many ways to approach a solution. Choosing which option is just a preference. If you work hard and give your best effort, being the best employer or the most cost effective one will work either way.

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Success is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration. Never tire.

There is good cause to getting a franchise

2007-04-29T17:35:00.000+08:00

For the past years, franchising has been very popular with entrepreneurs and there is good reason for that!

Starting a business is NOT easy. Take the example of this food retailer. For months they have done their research and preparation for the opening of their first outlet. They have done proper diligence in the location and they have negotiated for weeks for a solid contract.

However, things do not turn out as expected. There are internal and external factors that come to play. For this retailer, there are three immediate factors. 1) Location 2) Supply 3) Control

1. Location
Even with weeks of study and months of oberservation, this retailer failed to discover that vendors in front of their store are fiercely against moving out. The area's vendors even have banded together as an association and is illegally squatting on the sidewalk and building corridor.

The problem of the retailer is the decrease in exposure. His location though fronting the busy street gets covered with all the umbrellas and canvas setup by the vendors The premium he pays is lost.

2. Supply
During the early days of operation, the reception of the public to the product is still being observed. There has been days when demand peaked at lunch and some days where lunch sales was plain disappointing. Now the supply of the product becomes a problem. When orders increase, the outlet is unable to supply the demand. Customers are regretfully turned down due to zero supply. Delivery is questionalbe as well. As the first branch's inital days, the retailer has not set any delivery schedule yet.

3. Control
This is the easiest to teach but difficult to implement. Control is about being sure that there is no theft, within or without the company.

During our retailer's first days, inventory control and money control are of primary concern. Money has to be collected and inventory has to be accounted for. Even with regular monitoring and previuos instructions, the staff STILL need to be constantly reminded on the inventory regulations.

Franchise

Now these three factors would have easily been solved for a franchisee. A good franchisor has the experience and knowledge behind his business' concept and operation.

Take the Location factor as an example. Having previous experience with shady characters and locations, the franchisor will be able to point out to franchisees the possible dangers and scenarios of a location. He can share experiences and insights into a target location. Armed with this knowledge, the franchisee can make preparations for problems or dangers associated with his intended location.

The supply factor is the easiest to solve. A good franchsor has the infrastructure, system and logistics support to solve supply. Since he is already operating several company owned branches, there are already delivery trucks, delivery personnel, commissary personnel and other people working daily and following the company's systems. Sudden orders coming from a baby branch is easily solved with one phone call. The warehouse can easily release stocks for delivery while delivery trucks can easily change course to drop the impromptu orders at the new branch.

Lastly control is solved faster. With experience on his side, the Franchisor can train in advance the people necessary for the outlet. Training is the advantage of an established organization. Small startups may not have the resources to setup a training course especially when their own systems are not yet finalized.

Conclusion

Franchising is like a business-in-a-box product. You open the box and the business is ready to operate on day one armed with the experience of the franchisor. This means for people who do not have the time or the patience to prepare as a startup, then franchising is the way to go. There is less headache and money loss involved with franchising. Time is saved, money is saved and everyone is happier.

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Success is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration. Never tire.

My 12 Senator Forecast

2007-02-26T07:43:00.000+08:00

After running through the 80 something candidates for this 2007 Senatorial elections, here is my calculated guess. They are in no particular order.

1. Chiz Escudero
A very public official and leader of the Opposition at the lower chamber. He has a daily radio show at DZMM and strikes a chord with the public. He's a very charismatic speaker and is capable of getting his message across to the voters. It also helps that he looks like the Bamboo lead singer.

2. Loren Legarda
A very admired legislator during her tenure at the Senate. She lost to Noli during the recent Vice presidential elections but her popularity can still get her a Senate seat. She has a reputation as a clean and hard working official. Her ex-husband is now being charged with murder.

3. Noynoy Aquino
With the opposition being badgered by the very solid administration, who can resist voting for Ninoy's son? His father got elected during the oppression of Martial Law and now the similarities will bring him the Senate.

4. Prospero Pichay
A very good supporter of the President. He has come out several times to the media to defend the Madame. He is also more widely heard and seen by the people. His personality and demeanor reminds one of the common people. It also helps that he has name recall thanks to his vegetable-sounding name.

5. Peter Cayetano
All his efforts to target the First Gentleman wasn't foolish after all. This got him big big media attention and daily newspaper exposure. He has even surpassed Chiz Escudero in public appearances thanks to his continuous expose on the First Family's private German bank accounts. With the First Gentleman attacking in his latest salvo, this has just rocketed the Opposition congressman's popularity as a corruption-fighting, honest and with-the-people politician.

6. Kiko Pangilinan
Mr. Sharon Cuneta. Need I say more? He will win thanks to his immensely popular actress-wife. He won before, why not again?

7. Mike Defensor
He's the ardent defender of the President and member of her inner inner circle. He is also very media savvy and constantly expresses his opinions on various issues especially in defense of the President. He has done the correct moves during his rescue mission at the Bicol disaster. He is young, smart and popular. Mike is the anti-thesis of Chiz. He will win. Oh and did I mention he is with the Administration.

8. Manny Villar
Rich and shrewd. This successful businessman rocketed to the Senate Presidency in less than a decade. He started out as the Paranaque Mayor and had since then never looked back. He is now recognized as a third force with allegiance neither to the Administration nor the Opposition. He is more in-sync with the middle class and is known as a hard working and fair politician. He is the future president of the Philippines.

9. Panfilo Lacson
The former PNP chief will win with his strong anti-corruption platform and crime-fighting repuation. He has the support of the Filipino-chinese community thanks to his successful anti-kidnapping efforts during the Estrada administration. He is well funded and clean.

10. Joker Arroyo
He gained popularity during the impeachment trial of Erap as one of the congressman prosecutors. He regularly tops the most thrifty senators list and is recognized as a serious, hardworking and clean official. He can also be regularly seen on TV expressing his opinions on various issues of the land.

11. Caesar Montano
Star power. He is a very popular movie actor and director. Recently he just won a best actor award for his 2006 Metro Manila Filmfest entry.

12. Ed Angara
This old tiger knows the ins and outs of Philippine politics. He is the former Opposition leader of the Senate during Ramos' time. Experienced and backed by a well oiled political machinery, Ed Angara is sure to win a seat.

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Success is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration. Never tire.

A political party can help a lot

2007-02-22T08:40:00.000+08:00

In our very personality-based elections, it is very unfamiliar to encounter strong political parties. It is furthermore less known how this parties help the candidates.

I will use the American political party system to highlight the benefits of these groups.

1. A party has the right connections

A political party may be older than the candidate himself. With its platform and regular stands on certain issues, the group has already collected a base that can support its candidates financially. It is far easier to raise election war chests through party friends than doing it alone.

2. A party has the grassroots network

An established party like the Democrats already has field offices from the national level down to the town level. These offices have records of Democrat supporters and are regulary conducted political rallies that will help support the party in any upcoming election.

The people in these small offices are the voters' neighbors and even childhood friends. This makes it far easier to campaign for a candidate. The enthusiasm for a platform or candidate is expressed and shared on a very personal level. This greatly helps any campaign.

3. A party has the equipment and logistics support

In any election, what matters is the vote and on Election Day, a political party will do all it can to bring in the desired results. In America, parties shuttle their supporters or even late voters to election precincts just to get the votes. Each vote counts as they say. Such setup requires cars, buses, communication equipment and information systems that only a well-funded organization can muster.

4. A party has young and eager volunteers

Lastly, poll watching is essential. How much can a candidate bear to cover poll watchers' pay? On the other hand, strong political parties already have regular recruitments of party volunteers. These are the young, mostly college, students who just want to share their time and effort for a cause. They are the best poll watchers. All you have to do is just feed them.

Conclusion

A strong polical party offers many benefits to a candidate. A candidate gets to use the politcal machinery of the party and project himself throughout his campaign. It is then unfortunate that we do not have this system in place.

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Success is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration. Never tire.

Computerization is just a waste of time

2007-02-21T19:00:00.000+08:00

Yes it is because Information Technology is about bringing valuable information to the decision maker at the right time and at the right moment. Computerization on the other hand is simply like robotizing your factory without any good plans.

What's the difference anyway?

1. Business softwares are information systems. These are systems that accept input, process data, and give out helpful information.

2. Computerization is just recording unto the computer what was formerly recorded on paper.

Which is better?

Of course Information Systems are better. A good example is that of a Customer Relationship Management (CRM) software. This software records each lead you get. Any customer that expresses interest in buying your product is tediously recorded into the software. After a few days, you can then run through the list and do follow-ups on those interested parties. For long negotiations, you will be able to tap into the records and see the progress of any particular lead.

This software is a godsent for companies that are aggressive in their sales initiatives. Companies usually deal with hundreds of leads and trying to make sense of each lead is impossible. The software can then present the records in ways that are meaningful like having "Most possible leads", "Most high-value leads" or "Best-selling products". These lists will focus the sales manager's attention to the big picture and help him make good decisions. With such help, the manager can opt to target the recurrent customers or even push for the best-selling products rather than waste his efforts on the non-moving items.

Choose your software carefully.

Now, don't just rush to implement a CRM or inventory system overnight. Remember, software will just emulate a process being done by the company. Once you've finished the code, the system or process will be pegged. There will be limited flexiblity for changing the process once a software is being used.

If for some reason you suddenly decide to change your system, your investment in your present IT system may be lost and another round of software acquisition will happen.

Be careful and study your business processes well. If you are sure that the software design reflects the actual physical process and there's ample room for future changes then this system will greatly enhance your operations.

Advice

1. Hire a good Systems Analyst and have him design the software very well. After, hire a good programmer who will encode the design.

Software is like construction. You need a good architect to visualize and design your building and you also need a good carpenter to actualize the physical building.

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Success is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration. Never tire.

We have underdeveloped equity market

2007-02-09T15:17:00.000+08:00

After canvassing for other equity fund managers, I have discovered that it is not good at all to invest directly or indirectly in the stock market.

UITF's may not be worth it

1. Equity funds from the banks have management fees of 0.50 (BDO) to 1.50% (BPI) per annum. Plus they charge you another 0.50% if you cash out before the agreed upon holding period.

This is outrageous. This is the investor's money and the bank is hijacking it and even charging you for moving your funds.

If you go direct to a stock broker and manage your own portfolio, you'll just get charged the usual 0.50% fee. No holding period.

2. UITF's trading is very unfair for the everyday trader. The banks will inform you that trading time is between 9am to 12pm. This is no problem. It means you can buy or sell your UITF units during this time.

The problem is you will not know at what value you will buy or sell. This happens because when you buy/ sell at 10am, your base price will come out only by 12pm and not the price at 10am. At first you may think this is okay. You'll say to yourself that you'll just buy in the afternoon BUT remember, this is not allowed. It is practically gambling!

The stock broker meanwhile is just a call away! Tell him at what price you want to sell and if there's a buyer, your sale is done. This can be done during trading hours at your price.

Market is too small

1. Philippine Stock Market is too small. Unlike the US stock markets, here there is no ready market. The amount of money involved in the daily trading is so small that some index stocks don't even change prices. These are already index stocks!

This means that the traditional advise of "buy when the market crashes and sell when the market is in the upswing" will not work perfectly here. You may end up with worthless stocks for a couple of years. The upswing will not come unless foreign investors start buying local stocks- just like today.

Why speculate in the stock market if your returns will not immediately be realized?

Advise:
1. Stick to doing business to increase your income and cash.

2. Ride the bull market if you want but never be too greedy to sell when you've gained.

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Success is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration. Never tire.

Bonds, Mutual funds, UITF's and Equity markets

2007-02-07T12:50:00.000+08:00

Here's an explanation on the various investment instruments that a person can use. I draw these explanations from my experience with them.

I. Funds

These are generally pooled money handled by an individual, fund manager, group, bank, or company. What the company does is to pool small tranches of investments and make a big pool of cash amounting to maybe tens of millions of Pesos. The money is then invested in the highly volatile stock market. This is an exciting investment for those in their 20s and 30s.

How small then is one tranche?

These institutions usually have a minimum investment value of 25,000 to 50,000 Pesos. BPI has the 50,000 minimum investment requirement.

Why pool them together?

There are two reasons for pooling moeny together. First, to buy stocks or equities (These are synonyms by the way.) in the stock market, you'll have to meet the minimum quantity. Sometimes these minimum quantities reach 10,000 Pesos just for a certain stock. Your 50,000 Pesos then will not really get to be exposed to all the good stocks and if you're unfortunate, you may have bought a stock that will plunge way way down in price.

Second reason. With the pooled money, the institution can hire professional, experienced portfolio managers. They are the insiders in the industry. They know the trend of the stock prices, and the expected outcomes of good news and bad news. Sometimes, they may also know of some inside information that may help the manager choose the correct stock to buy. At least here, the expensive pay of the managers is spread over hundreds of investors.

Portfolio is the term we call for a set of stocks that a person is tracking, or investing in.

Insider trading which uses privileged information is illegal. This privileged information is so helpful that knowing this will surely push an investor to buy or sell a certain stock. Martha Stewart did this and earned millions but she got caught and had to pay and serve a sentence.

How volatile is the stock market?

The stock market is very volatile. With 50,000 Pesos, you may earn or lose 4,000 Pesos in a matter of 3 hours.

Is there a guaranteed return?

NO. This is not a bank deposit. You may earn or lose money. Just learn when to cash out and when to reinvest into the fund. It is all about timing. Buy when the market is down and sell when the market is up.

II. Equity funds, balanced funds, bond funds, mutual funds

These are different kinds of fund categories. When you invest in the stock market, it is called equity funds. When you invest in a basekt of government securities and stocks, this is balanced fund. When you invest in funds dedicated to government bonds and other bonds, this is bond fund.

These funds are usually handled by private companies. The SEC monitors these privately managed funds.

III. Unit Investment Trust Funds (UITF)

This is a kind of Fund. This is handled purely by banks and is monitored by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas. As of three years ago, the Bangko Sentral has implemented international standards in fund management. Before that, it was up to the bank's portfolio managers to systemize their investing.

UITF's are formerly called common trust funds (CTF).

IV. Bonds

Bonds are loans from an institution. Bonds usually range from 6 months to a few years. Governments and big companies issue this bonds to raise cash. They will pay interest for the duration of the bond period. Returns here are usually better than bank deposits.

Usually, an individual will not have direct access to the bond market. Bond offerings are worth tens of millions of Pesos and the small investor can't afford this. The way to get access to this is through the UITFs or Funds.

V. Treasury bills

Treasury bills work similarly to bonds but they are more short term. They range from 3 months to 12 months. Returns here are smaller compared to bonds but are better than bank deposits.

Again, the easiest way to invest in treasury bills is through UITFs or Funds. Treasury bills are also worth tens of millions of Pesos and the government usually sells wholesale. However the Bangko Sentral, from time to time, does offer Retail Treasury Bills (RTB) worth 5,000 Pesos each. You'll have to look for specific banks that sell these RTBs. Not all banks offer this instrument.

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Success is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration. Never tire.

Cash is king is convenience store

2007-01-19T23:51:00.000+08:00

In all my reading of business books, one important reminder always pops up: Cash is king.

It seems then that the retail convenience store is a very good business to go in to. Take the proliferating Mini-stops as an example. It just has the right combo and mix to attract frachisers and investors.

1. It is retail CASH.
Unlike the local sari-sari store, convenience stores don't sell on credit. Everything is cash.

2. Minimal overhead
Store owners have practiced the self-service creed to the last dot. They only employ two, maybe three staffs for one big store. Hotdog have to be skewed from their steamers and soda drinks have to be collected from their dispensers. So busy are the personnel manning the cashiers, rarely will one see any idle personnel.

3. Convenience
This is the best part. Convenience stores sell convenience and therefore charge premium prices for the good location.

Questions. Questions do swirl around my mind when I think of this business. Remember, convenience stores are just high-class sari-sari stores and they operate somewhat similarly.

1. Security
There maybe savings from personnel but there's an added cost for the security guard. 7-11, Mercury and Jollibee. These popular and successful companies have regularly employ security agencies to protect their stores from theft and robbery. Is there then real payroll savings from the Philippine convenience store model?

2. Branding
Does one need a brand to operate a profitable convenience store? I have seen very few own-brand convenience stores. Most of them are 7-11's or Mini-stop's. Is its cost structure so high that a premium- a brand premium- has to be present? Is the good location not enough to charge for good prices? If there's no brand, does the convenience store become a sari-sari store?

3. Credit
Won't the business earn more if it extends some credit for its repeat customers? Sari-sari stores have employed this credit policy successfuly and yet I've not seen this with the big players. Maybe it's just the lack of competition.

4. Extending your payables
What's the point of focusing on cash management if you can't stretch your terms with your suppliers. I'm sure as Mini-stop or 7-11 franchisees, you'll have no legroom in negotiating with your supplier- who most likely is also your franchisor.

There are so many answers to these questons. Bottom line is I've not seen the industry crowded enough to address the issues. There is still room to grow while players are but a few. Perhpas one day, I'll see a more sari-sari store inspired convenience store to open around the block. Until then this industry is very easy to enter into and is ripe for competition.

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Success is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration. Never tire.

The Era of Free Cellphone is Coming

2006-12-19T07:49:00.000+08:00

At the WEB 2.0 conference, Google CEO Eric Schmidt announces that cell phones shall cost nothing. Subsidies for these phones will rise as more advertising is channeled through mobile phones.

Taking a cue from the uber advanced Japanese mobile phone market, cell phones will one day be free! In Japan, there's already the 1 Yen mobile phone. This is roughly 50 centavos.

For free cellphones to exist in the Philippines, there are some factors that have to be in place.

1. There has to be more competition in the market.

Since the entrance of Sun Cellular to the market, it has been loud and industry-shaking. It has provided unlimited calls and unlimited text promotions. As a response, Globe and Smart has been dropping their text messaging rates and has also spinned off their own unlimited text and calls promos.

Right now, a text message costs between 50 to 70 centavos and I believe their is pressure to go even further down. Hopefully as more younger and hungrier telcos introduce plans to the market, they will be compelled to heavily subsidize phones and just focus on content (news, movie scheds, chismis) and service (text messaging, video feeds, calls) earnings. This is the only way to go for these baby telcos if they want to grab market share, controlled 80% by Globe and Smart, and at least get some resemblance of volume.

2. We have to increase further the penetration rate from 38% to 80%.

"Globe estimates that excluding subscribers with multiple SIMs brings down the actual penetration rate to 38% from 45%, which means the industry is perhaps another two years away from the expected peak penetration rate of 50%," the analyst noted.

- From BusinessWorld Research. Aritcle GLOBE TELECOM INC. from Stock Pick column. Dated December 4, 2006.
http://www.bworld.com.ph/Research/stockpicks.php?id=0094

Selling ads through mobile phones is still a novel idea in the Philippines and to do this you'll have to have a big big subscriber base. The 38% penetration rate, roughly around 15.2 million Filipinos,is already respectable but not yet good enough. Aside from the usual services, pushing advertising is a good strategy. However, their reach must be wide and across the spectrum. Remember, not all people will want ads being sent to their phones and not everyone will read text ads. Mobile phone companies then, like newspapers, will have to use their subscriber count in order to justify for pricey advertising rates.

3. Telcos must heavily push for the use of 3G services.

If a company wants to fully subsidize phones, they'll have to earn bigger margins. By tapping the top 15% of the population and pushing for the lucrative 3G services like tv-on-demand or video phoning, companies will be able to charge around 10 to 40 pesos per service. Multiply these prices over 2.3 million users and you'll get earnings of 23 million pesos per day- just from the 3G services. 2.3 million is the 15% of 15.2 million subscriber market. With this kind of projections, telecom companies will have enough cash to sell phones at a lost.

Wait! Don't get your hopes up yet. The free cell phones that will be offered are the basic bare-bones flavors. These phones will only be good for calling and basic text messaging with limited memory. Perhaps a comeback of the Nokia 3210 or the presently affordable Nokia 1100 will be the initial free models.

Paid-for-mobile units will still be here, especially the higher end ones. Remember, companies like Nokia and Motorola market their phones as fashion accessories and not as communication tools. Nokia's Vertu line and the pricey Nokia 8800 (pictured above) are all minimalist in design and yet exude the same fashion statement as a Louis Vuitton bag. These kinds of phones, made from titanium and embedded with diamonds, will survive the free phone rush and will still sell madly to the ultra-rich crowd.

The way to go then for these telecom companies is still to tap the price sensitive Filipinos. They have gotten rich by offering 1 peso text messaging and why not get another boost by offering free phones. I do not see 3G services being as successful as text messaging but this sector will help prop up margins high enough to subsidize phones that will deliver services to the primary market.

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Success is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration. Never tire.

Japan better be careful

2006-12-16T12:46:00.000+08:00

The Japanese Parliament recently passed a law upgrading the Defense Agency to a full ministry. This initiative is a bold move pushed by Prime Minister Abe and still he has further plans to patriotize the Japanese education curriculum. Japan is steadily moving away from its long time pacifist stand.

During World War II, imperial Japan has invaded and oppressed Korea, China and the rest of Southeast Asia. A very militaristic Japan was aggressive and hungry. This new Japan that is coming out is looking more and more hawkish.

Some proponents of the move have argued that Japan is merely taking up its role in the world's politics. Being the second biggest economy, Japan has a role to play in this very uncertain world.

This maybe true and I agree that Japan definitely has a role to play. The more powers playing geopolitics the better it is for small countries like us. The whole world will benefit with a more multilateral world as against the era of American lone hegemony.

However, Japan can still continue on its rise without rewriting history. One of the greatest weakness of Japan is its desire to keep on issuing construed versions of World War II. They keep on denying the Rape of Nanking and other atrocities they have done in their past imperial conquests.

It is said that victors write history but with Japan's newly revived economy and advanced military, they're now in a position to challenge that notion. Japan doesn't need the approval of its neighbors. It neither needs their money nor their protection. This is a difficult fix especially with an awaken China. Japan has just to thread this carefully.

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Success is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration. Never tire.

Her

2006-12-13T13:39:00.000+08:00

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Success is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration. Never tire.

Microfinance is a Sound Business Strategy

2006-12-12T07:41:00.000+08:00

In defense of microfinance, I'd like to correct the notion that it is unsound and only works as a semi-charity activity. In the Jonas Gonats "Banker for the Poor" article (http://jonatsgonats.co.nr/), the author cites that lending to the poor is too risky and disserves the bank's shareholders.

This is untrue. For these reasons:
1) Lending to the poor is not a trust issue. It is pure business. As regular banks can only get around 12% to 15% per annum returns on their loans, microfinance offers 20% to 60% per annum returns- and this is being conservative!

2) It is risky but the returns will compensate for that. Take the popular 5/6 loans of the local "bombays". If it isn't that profitable, these mobile bankers will stop to exist.

5/6 works like this. For every 5 Pesos you loan, you have to pay 6 Pesos. You pay everyday but you have to close your loan in 40 to 60 days. Sounds affordable right but if you compute it in a per annum basis, you'll see that the return is actually 120% conservatively.

3) There are ways to minimize microfinance risks. One is through peer pressure. The way microfinance institutions lend out money is through peer pressure groups. These groups continue to get access to credit as long as their credit standing as a whole is good. This is where the pressure begins.

Let's say in a group there is Farmer A, Farmer B and Farmer C like in Bangladesh. They each get a loan of 1000 pesos to buy necessities while waiting for this season's harvest. If for some reason Farmer C suddenly stops paying his loan, Farmer A and Farmer B will have to shoulder the cost. If Farmer A and Farmer B decline to pay, there credit line will stop. They can't borrow anymore. How can they stomach this as they don't have any income source for the next three months. They will now pressure their friend/ neighbor Farmer C. As Farmer C is known to the local community, he will be ostracized and scolded for burdening his peers. This will then force Farmer C to return and continue paying his loan.

4) Another way of minimizing risks is by niche marketing. Russian as other European banks have discovered that women are more diligent in paying their dues. They are also easier to scare. This is why these banks now have subsidiaries that cater to women alone. This is also the niche Mr. Yunus' Grameen Bank has targeted with 97% of whom are women. http://www.grameen-info.org/bank/index.html

5) Mr. Yunus' Bangladesh operation is not a break-even operation. Its repayment rate is 90%, meaning its Non-performing loan (NPL) ratio is just a low of 10%. This is a big difference with the Philippine bankers NPL ratio of 12.7%. (http://www.senate.gov.ph/publications/PI%202005-05%20-%20Banking%20on%20Banking%20-%20Issues%20and%20Challenges%20Facing%20the%20Banking%20Sector.pdf) Take note that the Philippine bankers' NPL ratio is low only because of the Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) Act, while Mr. Yunus succeeded in having a low NPL ratio of 10% without any SPV Act.

Special Purpose Vehicle Act is a special law meant to unload banks of non-performing loans aka bad debts. There is an entity called SPV. It is a company that buys non-performing loans from banks. They handle collection of the loan. They get a cut for doing this service. Banks like this SPV because they immediately remove some of the bad loans that appear on their balance sheets. Better balance sheets mean better confidence from investors. Don't forget that the bad loans don't just disappear. They are transferred to another entity. Until they get paid, the actual NPL of a bank will be high. To learn more of how an SPV works read http://www.ey.com/GLOBAL/content.nsf/Philippines/SPV_Act:_The_answer_to_the_Philippine_NPL_problem

6) Mr. Yunus has been targeting the rural poor and not the urban poor. This means his customers are the farmers and village vendors. Small entrepreneurs and not loafers.

Conclusion:
These microfinance facilites are unsecured but they provide one of the vital necessities the poor need: access to credit. The poor does not mean they do not have income, they just have seasonal droughts as their livelihoods are seasonal.

There are a lot of creative ways to tap this unseen market. Mr. Yunus just showed us a few of the popular ways.

I therefore believe that microfinance is a good business strategy. It is not charity as my arguments have shown. It is viable and can be proven with statistics and balance sheets. Lastly, it is profitable enough to absorb the risks of giving out unsecured loans.

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Success is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration. Never tire.

There is a new Maynilad at last

2006-12-07T18:18:00.000+08:00

What a great relief to hear that the government has at last awarded the Maynilad contract to a new consortium. The winning bidder is DMCI-MPIC consortium. Metro Pacific Investment Corp (MPIC) is the majority shareholder of PLDT. The other and losing bidder is Ayala's Manila Water.

The previous owner of Maynilad is the Lopez Family, owner of ABS-CBN and Meralco. It's so funny that they lost money in a monopoly and to think they already have experience with Meralco. Any economist will jump for joy when they own a monopoly. It's just plain simple to run such a business. The challenges faced by this company are no excuse for Lopez. Manila Water just did fine handling their end of the Metro. In fact Manila Water is now earning.

Now with the coming of Metro Pacific I hope the service improves on the west end. With a 25 billion peso price tag, these guys better manage it well!

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Success is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration. Never tire.

49.xx to 1 USD is here to stay

2006-12-06T18:19:00.000+08:00

After speculating that the US dollar will regain its strength later this year last October, i have come to the conclusion that the Peso will stay in its current level for some time.

Why? Well for these reasons:

1. The US economy is still slowing down. Note that the Southeast Asia's currencies have all appreaciated against the US dollar. We are not alone.

2. Interest rates are not going down. This then means we can still get better returns by depositing in Peso accounts. More people will want to convert to Peso.

3. Strong dollar inflows from our beloved OFWs.

Advice:

1. Get into 6 month or 1 year Peso time deposits.

2. You may buy the retail treasury bonds of the government priced at an affordable 5000 pesos each. You can ask your bank if they are selling this.

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Success is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration. Never tire.

Railroading for the cha cha is wrong!

2006-12-06T17:45:00.000+08:00

Last night, administration congressmen have started to disable one by one the safeguards for a transparent and fair charter change. They rewrote Rule 105 which originally states that any charter change proposal should go through the same process as any bill.

The new version of rule 105 will mean any congressman can propose cha-cha and the House to vote on it overnight. The next day we find out we already have a constituent assembly with elections postponed by 6 months.

What a lie to the general public they are doing! This is a breach of public trust. Administration congressmen should heed the words of the opposition and start making the process transparent and fair.

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ABS-CBN is fixing its image

Incidentally, DZMM the radio arm of ABS sounds very pro-opposition. This is a 180 degree turn from the time Mrs. Fernando Poe lambasted ABS CBN news anchor Karen Davila for presenting bias news reporting during the elections.

Kudos for the new ABS CBN then. They'll have to work hard to clean up the tarnished image. GMA news network has been gaining ground ever since then.

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Tyranny of numbers

I just wanted to note that the opposition congressmen have already consigned to defeat in the administration's cha-cha initiative. When Cong. Alan Cayetano talks, he reiterates that they are fighting for a transparent and fair process- take note, they are not promising that they'll block Cha-cha!

Let's all prepare for the upcoming noisy battles at the halls of Congress.

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Short-cutting the Cha-cha train

I recently read that there's a short cut for the cha-cha to pass through the senate and the judiciary. It sounds like a conspiracy theory but still worth reading.

It goes like this.

1. Administration congressmen will pass a resolution/ bill convening the constituent assembly. They will invite the Senate but if senators don't come, it will not matter.

2. Once they get the 195 votes, they will send this to Comelec. Comelec, under these cha-cha provisions will have to suspend the may 2006 elections.

3. The Senate meanwhile will question this move at the Supreme Court. The Supreme Court with Chief Justice Panganiban set to retire today 1159pm and assumming President Arroyo will delay appointing a successor, will be tied equally on the cha-cha. This is assumming they vote the same way as on the issue of the People's initiative.

With a dead-locked Supreme court, the Administration will have its way towards Cha-cha bypassing the Senate and delaying the Judiciary from intervening.

Maybe Philippines is just an unlucky country...

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Practice makes perfect.

Market studies and the Filipino middle class

2006-11-13T23:12:00.000+08:00

Is there such a thing as the Filipino middle class?

It is very suprising that market studies that segment the Filipino population to their spending power is very difficult to find. Maybe they're just for sale but even so, I don't see any ads in the main broadsheets.

I always think of the typical Filipino buying population as the few rich and the massive poor- nobody in between. This is why I am surprised to hear that a poor public school student will get around 30 Pesos as her baon for a day. This piece of information makes so much difference for businessmen!

I really hope that there will be a firm who will sell this kinds of market segmentation information for a reasonable fee.

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Practice makes perfect.

MIS is not so management after all

2006-10-22T22:58:00.000+08:00

When I entered MIS, I thought I would be a management student with heavy IT background. 4 years into the course and I found out it was 50-50. Seven months after graduating, I discovered it was more like 70% IT and 30% management.

Ateneo has a miscommunication of its MIS program. Half of my batch got surprised when we were required to learn programming! Yes, the department did explain that our ideal job is the CIO but they did not explain that the CIO is very very very far from the CEO.

As I went to some business discussions with my Industrial Engineer cousin, he explained some basic, I underscore the word b-a-s-i-c management principles which I just did not know. This is very regretful for someone who initially took MIS thinking it was management with heavy IT background.

I therefore suggest the Ateneo and specifically DISCS inform clearly to their freshmen what MIS is all about and more importantly what it is NOT about.

All these disillusionment must be the primary reason for Ateneo's School of Management's decision in creating an MIS-like program but more managmenet oriented. This will not be so hard as they already have a department that has classes that are very MIS-ish. Good thing though is these classes always come from the management perspective.

I've had dreams of making MIS a 50-50 Managment and CS course. Later on I've discovered that this is an impossible thing. In the world, we all need to find our niche. Either be IT or Management.

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Practice makes perfect.

Be a barangay chairman and councilor

2006-10-20T18:47:00.000+08:00

It is a little known fact that in Makati, there is a shortcut to councilorship. The way it goes is the League of Makati barangay chairmen elect a president. This president is automatically counted as a city councilor.

The clinch is, you'll have to be a great supporter of the mayore before you can get elected to this special post.

This is one reason why Binay is so against the DILG city representative taking over as temporary mayor. He reasons out that since the current League president is suspended the vice president should take over as councilor, and then as mayor.

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Practice makes perfect.

JSP Hosting in the Philippines

2006-10-05T12:05:00.000+08:00

Recently I have been searching for a local JSP hosting service. Unfortunately, it seems that this service is unavailable locally- ironic as we have a LOT of java programmers.

I do not want to risk apply for hosting at unknown companies that are located in India. Who knows, these may be fly-by-night setups.

If someone is to setup such a local hosting service, I bet there's a niche yet to be cornered.

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Practice makes perfect.

What's with the strong Peso?

2006-10-05T11:37:00.000+08:00

There might be a lot of people wondering why we have a strong Peso nowadays. For years, we have been accustomed to depreciation and its ill effects.

Is this for real then? Are we really starting to take flight? Has our economy reached rock bottom and the only way is up?

We are still at rock bottom. Our economy is not yet up.
1) The main reason why we have a strong Peso is because of the US Federal Reserve's decision to depreciate the dollar.

2) Southeast Asia's regional currencies has since then been appreciating against the dollar. Take note, the Peso is not alone.

3) The economy, with all the government's PR, is still the same. We may have good economic fundamentals but the money is not trickling down. The majority doesn't have extra disposable income yet.

4) The Peso is a barometer of the nation's confidence. Unlike other currencies' rates which are dictated by supply and demand, our Peso weakens when uncertainties in the country appear. It also works vice versa albeit slowly.

Advice:
1) Use this opportunity to import. Dollar is weak and interest rates are dropping. What better conditions for business expansion.

2) Hoard dollars in January. I personally do not believe the Peso will stay below 50:1 for long. As I said, historically the Peso depreciates 6% a year so this year is simply a spike in the statistics.

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Practice makes perfect.

What's with 49

2006-09-22T21:34:00.000+08:00

As of last monday, the Peso has breached the 49:1 dollar barrier. What's so important with it anyway?

1) For one, it will mean our Peso can buy more US greenbacks!

2) Once this psychological barrier (as what everyone calls it) is broken, we can expect the Peso to freely strengthen further.

3) Interest rates will drop. Now that more people want the Peso, the Bangko Sentral has more leeway wtih its monetary policies. They can lower interest rates on Peso accounts- and loans.

4) Lower interest means everyone can borrow cheaply. More money to spend, more businesses earn, more jobs created, better economy.

Advice:

1) Buy Peso time deposits now while interest rates are around 5%. If you wait further, OFW dollar remittances will start coming in. Peso will strengthen again and interest rates will go down further.

2) For dollar hoarders out there, I say still hold on to your dollars. Historically since 1988, the Peso has depreciated on average at around 6% a year. If you have dollar accounts right now, don't sweat. You still have not lost your money. You just lost your interest as the dollar depreciated but your principal is still intact. Since February, the Peso has only appreicated 4%- no worries then.

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Practice makes perfect.

Not yet a strong Peso after all

2006-09-18T21:16:00.000+08:00

Recently, I've been observing the steady rise of the Peso against the US Dollar. In fact I have been convinced that the Peso is getting stronger.

Sad to say, this may not be so. The reason for the strong Peso is still mostly due to the region's stronger currency. If you will notice, Southeast asia's currencies' have all been performing well- this includes the Peso. As a result, we have a steady 50:1 exchange rate.

To give credit to the government, they have been performing well. The continuous release of good news and the absence (gag order perhpas?) of bad news have all contributed to the strong Peso.

As a matter of fact, we have been getting better credit ratings lately from the rating agencies. For those unfamiliar with the significance of these ratings, rating agencies rate how good a payer you are. The higher the rate, the more trusting banks will be towards you. A more trusting bank gives lower interest rate as they know you won't run away or default on your payment. Therefore, a lower interest rate means less money going to interest payments and more money for the country's development. But how does this really affect our Peso?

As we all know, in the Philippines, the Peso is a barometer. It is a vote of confidence on the country. So as long as the country is doing good, the stronger the Peso becomes. Philippines has lots of dollars. These dollars are just in the hands of cautious businessmen.

Does this then mean the Peso will breach 49:1? Too early to say. Why so?
1. We have been experienceing an unusually peaceful third quarter. No coup, no people power- yet.
2. OFW remittances are still far away. Their dollars are not yet coming in.

Until November comes, and if the Peso is still at 50:1, I can safely say Peso may definitely breach 49:1.

Advice:
1. Wait until November. If the Peso is still strong, better load up on your Peso time deposits. Interest rates will drop. By February, the country will have more dollars than it needs.

As for me, I've already taken my bet and acquired a Peso time deposit. Good decision? We'll see...

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Practice makes perfect. For your comments, you may email me at arsiph@yahoo.com

It's alive!

2006-09-18T20:50:00.000+08:00

I'd like to thank Jona for inspiring to write my blog again...

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For your lovely comments, you can post or email me at arsiph@yahoo.com

Shrewd Empress

2006-01-23T18:38:00.000+08:00

The recent congratulatory call of the President to Manny Pacquiao is no innocent chat. She has constantly been beseiged with attacks from the opposition and add to that the dipping favor ratings, associating herself with a champion of the Filipino people is one hell of a move. In fact, it is a calculated and measured move. Her call was seen live by all Filipinos. Her voice and the presence of the First Gentleman already associates the champion with the President.

Everyone loves a winner especially this country. Craving for nationalistic pride, the Filipino people has been looking for a leader to look up to and Manny has filled this gap. I am not saying the boxing champ is the one. No, no no, this guy is only as good as his last fight but we have seen how much the country can unite once behind a strong personality.

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Ever wondered if the First Gentleman is a liablity or an asset to the Pink Throne along Pasig River? It is in fact interesting to note that he is the first active FG, which makes it more dangerous. It is only natural for the press to question his motives for each transaction he enters into. Having unlimited access to the President definitely brings influence. "Access" as the young George Bush of America once said, is power.

Right now FG is a big liablity for the President. He is a big bull's eye target for opponents of this administration. The problem with having a male FG is the aura of power coming from Malacanang sticks with the guy. Coming from a patriarchal society, Filipinos cannot seperate the man from power. As such, FG whether Malacanang wants it or not, represents the embattled President.

However, this shouldn't be a weakness. In fact if the President only knows how to use the First Gentleman, she can turn things around. Send FG to do the social work of the President and make sure those damn cameras get tons of videos for each visit he makes. The FG too can start social causes like the forgotten Piso Para Sa Pasig program. Social causes tend to cover the hot issues threatening the government. Meanwhile the President, can focus on her work and start improving the economy of the country. This way, she gets all kudos for FG's work plus she won't get criticized for trying to be a populist President. Also, it will help if she is more subtler with her ulterior motives. She is too obvious!

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I've seen the super action-packed Underworld 2. Very nice. At first it was confusing for the story immediately continues after the first movie but after asking my sister several times, I finally got to pieace together the flow of the story line. I suggest you brush up with Underworld 1 and then proceed to watch this film.

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For your lovely comments, you can post or email me at arsiph@yahoo.com