The Morning Eclipse

Thursday, October 05, 2006

What's with the strong Peso?

There might be a lot of people wondering why we have a strong Peso nowadays. For years, we have been accustomed to depreciation and its ill effects.

Is this for real then? Are we really starting to take flight? Has our economy reached rock bottom and the only way is up?

We are still at rock bottom. Our economy is not yet up.
1) The main reason why we have a strong Peso is because of the US Federal Reserve's decision to depreciate the dollar.

2) Southeast Asia's regional currencies has since then been appreciating against the dollar. Take note, the Peso is not alone.

3) The economy, with all the government's PR, is still the same. We may have good economic fundamentals but the money is not trickling down. The majority doesn't have extra disposable income yet.

4) The Peso is a barometer of the nation's confidence. Unlike other currencies' rates which are dictated by supply and demand, our Peso weakens when uncertainties in the country appear. It also works vice versa albeit slowly.

Advice:
1) Use this opportunity to import. Dollar is weak and interest rates are dropping. What better conditions for business expansion.

2) Hoard dollars in January. I personally do not believe the Peso will stay below 50:1 for long. As I said, historically the Peso depreciates 6% a year so this year is simply a spike in the statistics.


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Practice makes perfect.

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