My 12 Senator Forecast

After running through the 80 something candidates for this 2007 Senatorial elections, here is my calculated guess. They are in no particular order.

1. Chiz Escudero
A very public official and leader of the Opposition at the lower chamber. He has a daily radio show at DZMM and strikes a chord with the public. He's a very charismatic speaker and is capable of getting his message across to the voters. It also helps that he looks like the Bamboo lead singer.

2. Loren Legarda
A very admired legislator during her tenure at the Senate. She lost to Noli during the recent Vice presidential elections but her popularity can still get her a Senate seat. She has a reputation as a clean and hard working official. Her ex-husband is now being charged with murder.

3. Noynoy Aquino
With the opposition being badgered by the very solid administration, who can resist voting for Ninoy's son? His father got elected during the oppression of Martial Law and now the similarities will bring him the Senate.

4. Prospero Pichay
A very good supporter of the President. He has come out several times to the media to defend the Madame. He is also more widely heard and seen by the people. His personality and demeanor reminds one of the common people. It also helps that he has name recall thanks to his vegetable-sounding name.

5. Peter Cayetano
All his efforts to target the First Gentleman wasn't foolish after all. This got him big big media attention and daily newspaper exposure. He has even surpassed Chiz Escudero in public appearances thanks to his continuous expose on the First Family's private German bank accounts. With the First Gentleman attacking in his latest salvo, this has just rocketed the Opposition congressman's popularity as a corruption-fighting, honest and with-the-people politician.

6. Kiko Pangilinan
Mr. Sharon Cuneta. Need I say more? He will win thanks to his immensely popular actress-wife. He won before, why not again?

7. Mike Defensor
He's the ardent defender of the President and member of her inner inner circle. He is also very media savvy and constantly expresses his opinions on various issues especially in defense of the President. He has done the correct moves during his rescue mission at the Bicol disaster. He is young, smart and popular. Mike is the anti-thesis of Chiz. He will win. Oh and did I mention he is with the Administration.

8. Manny Villar
Rich and shrewd. This successful businessman rocketed to the Senate Presidency in less than a decade. He started out as the Paranaque Mayor and had since then never looked back. He is now recognized as a third force with allegiance neither to the Administration nor the Opposition. He is more in-sync with the middle class and is known as a hard working and fair politician. He is the future president of the Philippines.

9. Panfilo Lacson
The former PNP chief will win with his strong anti-corruption platform and crime-fighting repuation. He has the support of the Filipino-chinese community thanks to his successful anti-kidnapping efforts during the Estrada administration. He is well funded and clean.

10. Joker Arroyo
He gained popularity during the impeachment trial of Erap as one of the congressman prosecutors. He regularly tops the most thrifty senators list and is recognized as a serious, hardworking and clean official. He can also be regularly seen on TV expressing his opinions on various issues of the land.

11. Caesar Montano
Star power. He is a very popular movie actor and director. Recently he just won a best actor award for his 2006 Metro Manila Filmfest entry.

12. Ed Angara
This old tiger knows the ins and outs of Philippine politics. He is the former Opposition leader of the Senate during Ramos' time. Experienced and backed by a well oiled political machinery, Ed Angara is sure to win a seat.

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Success is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration. Never tire.

A political party can help a lot

In our very personality-based elections, it is very unfamiliar to encounter strong political parties. It is furthermore less known how this parties help the candidates.

I will use the American political party system to highlight the benefits of these groups.

1. A party has the right connections

A political party may be older than the candidate himself. With its platform and regular stands on certain issues, the group has already collected a base that can support its candidates financially. It is far easier to raise election war chests through party friends than doing it alone.

2. A party has the grassroots network

An established party like the Democrats already has field offices from the national level down to the town level. These offices have records of Democrat supporters and are regulary conducted political rallies that will help support the party in any upcoming election.

The people in these small offices are the voters' neighbors and even childhood friends. This makes it far easier to campaign for a candidate. The enthusiasm for a platform or candidate is expressed and shared on a very personal level. This greatly helps any campaign.

3. A party has the equipment and logistics support

In any election, what matters is the vote and on Election Day, a political party will do all it can to bring in the desired results. In America, parties shuttle their supporters or even late voters to election precincts just to get the votes. Each vote counts as they say. Such setup requires cars, buses, communication equipment and information systems that only a well-funded organization can muster.

4. A party has young and eager volunteers

Lastly, poll watching is essential. How much can a candidate bear to cover poll watchers' pay? On the other hand, strong political parties already have regular recruitments of party volunteers. These are the young, mostly college, students who just want to share their time and effort for a cause. They are the best poll watchers. All you have to do is just feed them.

Conclusion

A strong polical party offers many benefits to a candidate. A candidate gets to use the politcal machinery of the party and project himself throughout his campaign. It is then unfortunate that we do not have this system in place.

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Success is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration. Never tire.

Japan better be careful

The Japanese Parliament recently passed a law upgrading the Defense Agency to a full ministry. This initiative is a bold move pushed by Prime Minister Abe and still he has further plans to patriotize the Japanese education curriculum. Japan is steadily moving away from its long time pacifist stand.

During World War II, imperial Japan has invaded and oppressed Korea, China and the rest of Southeast Asia. A very militaristic Japan was aggressive and hungry. This new Japan that is coming out is looking more and more hawkish.

Some proponents of the move have argued that Japan is merely taking up its role in the world's politics. Being the second biggest economy, Japan has a role to play in this very uncertain world.

This maybe true and I agree that Japan definitely has a role to play. The more powers playing geopolitics the better it is for small countries like us. The whole world will benefit with a more multilateral world as against the era of American lone hegemony.

However, Japan can still continue on its rise without rewriting history. One of the greatest weakness of Japan is its desire to keep on issuing construed versions of World War II. They keep on denying the Rape of Nanking and other atrocities they have done in their past imperial conquests.

It is said that victors write history but with Japan's newly revived economy and advanced military, they're now in a position to challenge that notion. Japan doesn't need the approval of its neighbors. It neither needs their money nor their protection. This is a difficult fix especially with an awaken China. Japan has just to thread this carefully.



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Success is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration. Never tire.

Railroading for the cha cha is wrong!

Last night, administration congressmen have started to disable one by one the safeguards for a transparent and fair charter change. They rewrote Rule 105 which originally states that any charter change proposal should go through the same process as any bill.

The new version of rule 105 will mean any congressman can propose cha-cha and the House to vote on it overnight. The next day we find out we already have a constituent assembly with elections postponed by 6 months.

What a lie to the general public they are doing! This is a breach of public trust. Administration congressmen should heed the words of the opposition and start making the process transparent and fair.

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ABS-CBN is fixing its image

Incidentally, DZMM the radio arm of ABS sounds very pro-opposition. This is a 180 degree turn from the time Mrs. Fernando Poe lambasted ABS CBN news anchor Karen Davila for presenting bias news reporting during the elections.

Kudos for the new ABS CBN then. They'll have to work hard to clean up the tarnished image. GMA news network has been gaining ground ever since then.

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Tyranny of numbers

I just wanted to note that the opposition congressmen have already consigned to defeat in the administration's cha-cha initiative. When Cong. Alan Cayetano talks, he reiterates that they are fighting for a transparent and fair process- take note, they are not promising that they'll block Cha-cha!

Let's all prepare for the upcoming noisy battles at the halls of Congress.


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Short-cutting the Cha-cha train

I recently read that there's a short cut for the cha-cha to pass through the senate and the judiciary. It sounds like a conspiracy theory but still worth reading.

It goes like this.

1. Administration congressmen will pass a resolution/ bill convening the constituent assembly. They will invite the Senate but if senators don't come, it will not matter.

2. Once they get the 195 votes, they will send this to Comelec. Comelec, under these cha-cha provisions will have to suspend the may 2006 elections.

3. The Senate meanwhile will question this move at the Supreme Court. The Supreme Court with Chief Justice Panganiban set to retire today 1159pm and assumming President Arroyo will delay appointing a successor, will be tied equally on the cha-cha. This is assumming they vote the same way as on the issue of the People's initiative.

With a dead-locked Supreme court, the Administration will have its way towards Cha-cha bypassing the Senate and delaying the Judiciary from intervening.

Maybe Philippines is just an unlucky country...



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Practice makes perfect.

Be a barangay chairman and councilor

It is a little known fact that in Makati, there is a shortcut to councilorship. The way it goes is the League of Makati barangay chairmen elect a president. This president is automatically counted as a city councilor.

The clinch is, you'll have to be a great supporter of the mayore before you can get elected to this special post.

This is one reason why Binay is so against the DILG city representative taking over as temporary mayor. He reasons out that since the current League president is suspended the vice president should take over as councilor, and then as mayor.


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Practice makes perfect.

Shrewd Empress

The recent congratulatory call of the President to Manny Pacquiao is no innocent chat. She has constantly been beseiged with attacks from the opposition and add to that the dipping favor ratings, associating herself with a champion of the Filipino people is one hell of a move. In fact, it is a calculated and measured move. Her call was seen live by all Filipinos. Her voice and the presence of the First Gentleman already associates the champion with the President.

Everyone loves a winner especially this country. Craving for nationalistic pride, the Filipino people has been looking for a leader to look up to and Manny has filled this gap. I am not saying the boxing champ is the one. No, no no, this guy is only as good as his last fight but we have seen how much the country can unite once behind a strong personality.

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Ever wondered if the First Gentleman is a liablity or an asset to the Pink Throne along Pasig River? It is in fact interesting to note that he is the first active FG, which makes it more dangerous. It is only natural for the press to question his motives for each transaction he enters into. Having unlimited access to the President definitely brings influence. "Access" as the young George Bush of America once said, is power.

Right now FG is a big liablity for the President. He is a big bull's eye target for opponents of this administration. The problem with having a male FG is the aura of power coming from Malacanang sticks with the guy. Coming from a patriarchal society, Filipinos cannot seperate the man from power. As such, FG whether Malacanang wants it or not, represents the embattled President.

However, this shouldn't be a weakness. In fact if the President only knows how to use the First Gentleman, she can turn things around. Send FG to do the social work of the President and make sure those damn cameras get tons of videos for each visit he makes. The FG too can start social causes like the forgotten Piso Para Sa Pasig program. Social causes tend to cover the hot issues threatening the government. Meanwhile the President, can focus on her work and start improving the economy of the country. This way, she gets all kudos for FG's work plus she won't get criticized for trying to be a populist President. Also, it will help if she is more subtler with her ulterior motives. She is too obvious!

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I've seen the super action-packed Underworld 2. Very nice. At first it was confusing for the story immediately continues after the first movie but after asking my sister several times, I finally got to pieace together the flow of the story line. I suggest you brush up with Underworld 1 and then proceed to watch this film.

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For your lovely comments, you can post or email me at arsiph@yahoo.com